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eBook: David Vose – Risk Analysis – A Quantitative Guide.pdf (729 pgs.).
Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide is an essential resource for risk analysts and decision-makers, drawing from the author’s extensive experience in tackling real-world risk challenges. This book serves as a valuable guide to risk analysis practitioners by introducing the foundational principles of risk-based thinking. It walks the reader through the necessary steps to create realistic risk analyses, offering both general and specific techniques to address common and complex risk modeling problems.
Through a wide array of solved examples, the author demonstrates how these techniques can be used to make informed, risk-based decisions. The third edition of this highly respected text has been thoroughly updated, now including five new chapters. These additions are aimed at risk managers, covering topics like planning and assessing the quality of risk analysis, and new chapters for risk analysts on key areas such as the summation of random variables, causality, optimization, insurance and finance modeling, forecasting, model validation, common errors, capital investment, and microbial risk assessment. The updated edition also emphasizes business applications and includes practical insights across a variety of settings.
Key Features:
Breaks down techniques into types of modeling issues (like distribution fitting, correlation, and time series forecasting) and applies them with easy-to-follow examples.
Explains powerful Monte Carlo simulations and numerical methods for addressing uncertainty.
Includes recent innovations in modeling, such as fast Fourier transforms and copulas.
Contains over 150 example models and more than 400 illustrations.
Written in an informal style, focusing on practical rather than academic insights.
Discusses the planning, uses, and potential misuses of risk analysis.
Offers a comprehensive list of nearly 80 distribution types and their applications.
